CBC- A new
book arriving on the eve of the federal election campaign is offering policy
geeks a comprehensive take on whether Justin Trudeau lived up to his 2015 vows.
At the heart
of the 237-page publication — the product of work from two dozen Canadian academics
— is an analysis of 353 Liberal pre-election promises and an evaluation of how
many have actually been fulfilled since Trudeau’s team took office.
In short, the
experts found that by March of this year Trudeau’s government had entirely
followed through on about 50 per cent of its pledges, partially delivered on
about 40 per cent and had broken roughly 10 per cent.
The authors
say the book — which also features a deep plunge into the weeds of about a
dozen key policy areas — will not only interest wonks, like scholars and
journalists, but can serve as a primer for all voters ahead of October’s
election.
“In an
era of ‘fake news,’ negative advertising campaigns and conventional and social
media overload, voters face a daunting challenge in providing a neutral and
objective assessment of the past four years under the Liberal government,”
they write in the book, published by les Presses de l’Universite Laval.
“This
book provides them with tools based on real facts to enlighten their evaluation
of Justin Trudeau’s government’s record.”
The English
edition, titled “Assessing Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Government,” is
scheduled for release Monday. The authors say their mission was to create a
non-partisan, transparent source of information about pledge fulfilment.
For those
looking to keep score, the book also provides a historical dimension.
Researchers have retroactively examined pledge fulfilment by federal
governments dating back to Brian Mulroney’s first majority mandate in 1984.
The Trudeau
government’s result is based on a platform-monitoring tool called the
“Polimetre,” which is managed by Universite Laval’s Centre for Public
Policy Analysis.
The gauge’s
latest reading — updated since March — shows the Liberals have entirely
fulfilled 53.5 per cent of their 2015 vows, partially lived up to 38.5 per cent
and broken eight per cent.
The
researchers also created a Polimetre for Stephen Harper’s last majority
government that stretched from 2011 to 2015. The Harper government, they found,
completely met 77 per cent of its election pledges, delivered in part on seven
per cent and broke 16 per cent of their promises.
The Harper
Polimetre was the group’s first at the federal level — and the Trudeau version
was the first to be made into a book.
There are two
ways to draw a conclusion on Trudeau and Harper’s promise-keeping records, said
book co-editor Francois Petry, a political science professor from Universite
Laval.
One is to
combine pledges fully met with those partially kept — which gives Trudeau a
score of 92 per cent and 85 per cent for the final four years of Harper’s run.
Or, Petry said, one can simply compare vows fully realized — Trudeau gets 53.5
per cent and Harper 77 per cent.
However, not
all pledges are created equally, he noted.
Trudeau
entered the 2015 campaign having made a lot of “transformative”
promises, he said, in part because the Liberals wrote their more ambitious
pledges while they were a third-place party.
In contrast,
Harper made a lot of “transactional” promises, which Petry described
as those targeted at sub-populations like parents, for instance.
The writers
also stress that efforts by all governments to deliver on promises often
converge with conditions outside their control. Circumstances could include the
fulfilment-hampering effects of an economic downturn or a boost from strong
growth, which the Liberals have seen in recent years.
In the end,
however, the researchers found the Trudeau and the last Harper government had
the highest rates of follow-through on their campaign promises of any Canadian
government over the last 35 years.
Overall,
governments in Canada have good records when it comes to keeping promises,
Petry said. Polls, on the other hand, have long shown that most Canadians think
politicians are liars, even though voters have generally done a poor job
keeping tabs on party pledges.
“There
is a sort of negative bias in the Canadian population,” said Petry, who
co-edited the book with Centre for Public Policy Analysis executive director
Lisa Birch.
“We are
trying, therefore, to sort of change the view of the public on this particular
topic.”
The book also
explores the effectiveness of Liberal policies and decisions over the last four
years in a range of areas — from the party’s vows to support the middle class,
address climate change and deliver on electoral reform.
For example,
the research notes how the Trudeau government abandoned its 2015 campaign vow
to run annual deficits of no more than $10 billion and to balance the books by
2019.
It also noted
how the Liberals broke their promises to introduce legislation on electoral
reform within 18 months of forming government and to end the
first-past-the-post voting system.
Asked about
potential criticism of the research, Petry said the authors make no claims
their method is foolproof, nor do they argue the results are as airtight as a
controlled lab experiment.
He said the
Polimetre has been applied to recent provincial governments in Quebec. The
group, Petry added, is considering a project that will scrutinize the pledges
of Ontario’s Doug Ford government.