Additional product bans loom, Canadian Federation of Independent Business estimates
According to new estimates released in recent weeks by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, 53,112 businesses are directly impacted by either U.S. tariffs, Canadian counter-tariffs or both.
Of that total, 13,160 are exporters, while 45,414 are importers.
Small business excluded
“While government has made a few important and welcome changes to the main tariff supports, the programs continue to exclude about half of the small business community,” says Corinne Pohlmann, executive vice-president for advocacy at the Toronto-headquartered CFIB.
“We have been telling government that the counter-tariffs would have a far broader impact than the U.S. tariffs,” she continues.
“Programs that only help a few thousand businesses are unacceptable when tens of thousands need support,” says Pohlmann, adding that the recent announcement that some Canadian goods will be outright banned from U.S. import at the end of September only underscores the need to get support ASAP.
Small business relief
With that in mind, the CFIB is proposing three important measures:
- A dedicated Small Business Tariff Relief (SBTR) program, where impacted exporters and importers who can provide direct evidence they paid the tariffs directly, or adjusted prices to absorb part or all of the tariff, would be eligible to receive initial tariff relief up to $70,000 CAD.
- An SME Desk for Tariff Remissions to speed up decisions on eliminating Canadian retaliatory tariffs if there are major negative impacts on the industry or if alternatives to the U.S. product are not readily available.
- Immediate tax relief for all small businesses in the form of a Small Business Corporate Tax Rate cut from 9% to 6%, retroactive to January 1, 2026, and an increase to the Small Business Deduction threshold from $500,000 to $700,000 with future indexation to inflation.
“The Regional Tariff Response Initiative Programs have standardized eligibility criteria and reduced their access thresholds down to $1 million, but it doesn’t go far enough,” said Pohlmann.
Direct suppport for small players
“A $1-million threshold will still exclude a huge number of businesses. We need a simple, direct support program to help small businesses on the U.S. and Canadian tariff lists in addition to broad-based tax relief to help all small firms that will be hurt by the trade war.”
In an interview with Newsfirst Multimedia, Ryan Mallough, vice-president for legislative affairs and communications at the CFIB, was asked whether the CFIB foresees the current tariff war between Canada and the U.S. being toned down in the next two years or sooner as President Donald Trump’s time in office is projected to end in January 2029.
“First and foremost, really and truly, I think we hope it doesn’t take two years,” he said. “I hope we’re able to reach some kind of deal well before then.” He suggested that the date many Canadians and Americans are now eagerly anticipating comes in November when the U.S. midterm elections take place.
Shifting political climate in U.S.
Historically, midterm elections often see the president’s party lose seats in the U.S. Congress, and frequently see the president’s opposite-party opponents gain control of one or both houses of Congress.
“If the House or the Senate changes hands or both of them change hands, what that does can change the administration’s tenor or their ability to invoke things,” said Mallough. “So, the first potential exit ramp is probably over the next couple of months.”
After that, he said it will be a question of whether federal Minister Responsible for Canada-U.S. Trade Dominic Leblanc and his U.S. counterpart Jamieson Greer continue to talk and “force the conversation to become more pressing on both sides, and do we see something happen there.
No signs of short-term relief
“Overall, we hope that the sides are still communicating and talking,” Mallough continued. “You know, would I expect a deal imminently? I don’t think so. But, as we’ve experienced throughout the trade war, things tend to move very quickly in both directions.
“So, it would both be a surprise and not a surprise to hear that there is a deal, you know, in the works. But at the same time, I think a lot of people are making the calculus that in two years, constitutionally there has to be a change in the presidency, you know, and that’s sort of the long end of the timeline on that side.”
