With Premier François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec government having seemingly outlived its usefulness after two terms in office, and the Parti Québécois still far from regaining the groove that kept them in power for nearly a decade, the Quebec Liberal Party is poised for a return.
However, what could make all the difference is who the PLQ chooses for a leader in June, and how that choice is perceived by Quebecers who will be casting ballots in the October 2026 election.
There was a time only a few years back when the party that François Legault assembled from scratch more than 13 years ago was seriously considered an existential threat to the Quebec Liberals.
The CAQ had managed to differentiate itself from the Parti Québécois by seemingly putting aside sovereigntist nationalism, while posing as the party that had all the answers to the province’s economic problems, because it was led by a man with an established record of success as the co-founder of Air Transat.
It might be recalled that prior to launching the CAQ, Legault – truly in keeping with his vocation as a corporate maven – conducted extensive market research and focus groups all over Quebec (including some stops in Laval).
It was only then that he decided there was sufficient grassroots support to create a political party, which would be largely built around himself.
It should therefore come as no surprise that as the nearly 68-year-old Premier mulls whether or not to tempt fate by rolling the dice once more to run in next year’s election, the truth is that the CAQ government ran out of energy and started falling apart almost as soon as they won their second term.
As the PQ continues to obsess over language, culture and sovereignty, the CAQ’s failure offers the Quebec Liberals everything they need to regain their mantle as the pragmatic centrists with Quebec’s economic well-being largely at heart.
Gone now are the demoralized days, concurrent with the CAQ’s rise, when the most the PLQ could offer in terms of direction was the short-lived leadership of Dominique Anglade. Five candidates are now vying for the position, although, if anything, it should be noted that none of them is a woman (which is perhaps a shortcoming that may eventually have to be addressed.)
While the CAQ’s economic policies have failed to generate results (the government’s disastrous Northvolt investment being perhaps the most blatant example), it was populist politics mostly that carried and kept the CAQ in power since 2018. And that is also the challenge the Quebec Liberals now face.
It’s well-known that the CAQ’s base of power is in electoral ridings located in Quebec’s rural regions. That is arguably where the PLQ will need to concentrate its efforts.
The Quebec Liberals’ success in the 2026 election may depend more than they now realize on whether next month they choose a leader with a strong grassroots appeal to voters in the regions, rather than one who is more urbane.
During the PLQ’s ongoing leadership debates, former federal cabinet minister Pablo Rodriguez has emerged as the candidate targeted the most often with criticism.
But it’s also worth noting that most of the criticism came from Mario Roy, a native of the province’s isolated but very independent Beauce region, who demonstrated his willingness to challenge the status quo by speaking out while his colleagues were mostly collegial and silent.
It is perhaps that kind of spirit that the Quebec Liberals should be taking more seriously as they contemplate who to choose as their next leader, as well as the strategy they will employ next year as they campaign for the support of voters all over Quebec.
The Quebec Liberal Party will need a leader who possesses a common touch and embodies populist strength, but also one with a thorough and fact-based knowledge of economics to face the challenges which almost certainly lie squarely ahead.
